Mike Arauz is a strategist at Undercurrent, and lives in Red Hook, Brooklyn. Mike's interested in media, marketing, technology, photography, film, food, and politics. This site is a place for you to discover the things that Mike thinks are interesting enough to pass on. Email: him[at]mikearauz[dot]com
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The “Napoleon Dynamite” problem is driving Len Bertoni crazy. Bertoni is a 51-year-old “semiretired” computer scientist who lives an hour outside Pittsburgh. In the spring of 2007, his sister-in-law e-mailed him an intriguing bit of news: Netflix, the Web-based DVD-rental company, was holding a contest to try to improve Cinematch, its “recommendation engine.” The prize: $1 million. It is, Bertoni and others have discovered, maddeningly hard to determine how much people will like [Napoleon Dynamite]. When Bertoni runs his algorithms on regular hits like “Lethal Weapon” or “Miss Congeniality” and tries to predict how any given Netflix user will rate them, he’s usually within eight-tenths of a star. But with films like “Napoleon Dynamite,” he’s off by an average of 1.2 stars.
What we mean when something goes 'viral' is that LOTS OF PEOPLE CHOOSE TO PROPAGATE IT. It requires people to do something. Voluntarily. For their own reasons. It is not simply a new way to broadcast our messages through populations. It suggests we push, when in fact they pull.
George Eastman House has added 50 incredible shots of street photography from 1960s New York City by James Jowers to Flickr's Creative Commons Collection.
I'm reading this great article from last weekend's NYTimes Magazine about the people who are trying to win Netflix's $1 million prize for the improving their recommendation engine, Cinematch, by 10%. The contest has been going since 2006, and many competitors (from all over the world, and from a diverse array of backgrounds and expertise) have made significant improvements, but eventually they all hit a wall. And that wall's name is "Napoleon Dynamite."
It is, Bertoni and others have discovered, maddeningly hard to determine how much people will like [Napoleon Dynamite]. When Bertoni runs his algorithms on regular hits like “Lethal Weapon” or “Miss Congeniality” and tries to predict how any given Netflix user will rate them, he’s usually within eight-tenths of a star. But with films like “Napoleon Dynamite,” he’s off by an average of 1.2 stars.
There are a handful of other films, too, that are equally difficult to predict in the same way as "Napoleon Dynamite:" “I Heart Huckabees,” “Lost in Translation,” “Fahrenheit 9/11,” “The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou,” “Kill Bill: Volume 1” and “Sideways.”
I'm wondering if the reason for the volatility in people's affinity or distaste for these films is due less to the uniqueness of the films' content or aesthetic, and due more to the amount of noise made by their fans.
People love these movies for various reasons, but what they all have in common is that the people who did love them made it a point of pride. It was a more meaningful and significant badge in our society to be a fan of these movies specifically because they were not well liked by everyone. It's easy to say you liked "Wall-E," who didn't? But, liking "Napoleon Dynamite" is basically like choosing to sit with the band-geeks and LARPers in the junior high cafeteria.
Yesterday, I noticed a poster in the window of an American Apparel store, and it wasn't a picture of a hipster chick in some state of sexy dishabille. It was merely well designed Helvetica text, perfectly laid out on a simple grid. It reminded me how much I love the work of Josef Müller-Brockmann.
Müller-Brockmann's work demonstrates that you don't need more than one good typeface to be a good designer. And sometimes nothing more than a few carefully drawn shapes and precise type-setting can convey all the information and emotion you would ever need.
I had a fantastic time at The Futures of Entertainment Conference on Friday and Saturday, hosted by Henry Jenkins and the Convergence Culture Consortium at MIT. There were a lot of incredible people and some very thought provoking discussions. It's going to take a while for it all to sink in. You can read live-blogged accounts of each of the panels on the C3 blog.
Since I left, I've been thinking a lot about fans. Not just the average viewer, reader, or customer; but, the devoted people who on some level see their affection for something someone else has created as part of their own identity. When we think about how the internet has changed the communications landscape, it seems that fans have taken on an increasingly important and central role in the making or breaking of brands and entertainment properties.
Fandom has a long and storied history (and there are plenty of people who are much more qualified than I am to talk about it), and in the past couple years I think we've started a new chapter. The most obvious example of this change is Comic-Con, the huge conference for sci-fi disciples and super hero devotees of every persuasion that has turned into the must-attend super-showcase for every aspiring new movie, TV show, or video game. I've also seen fan culture creep into the marketing world. In my own work I often use the word fan in place of consumer, when I talk about reaching a core audience of people who care most about a product or service.
I think that the reason why we're seeing this interest in fans, is that we're recognizing how powerful a mobilized fan community can be. If they love you, they will make you a hit. If they hate you, they will prevent you from ever having a chance.
But, relationships between fans and the creators of the work that has earned the fans' devotion are complex, and the diverse roles represent varying degrees of active participation.
Fans as Audience This is the most basic and traditional role for fans. These are simply the people who want to experience what you create. And it's basically the cost of entry, now. If no one's interested in what you've created, you might as well pack up and go home.
Fans as Consumers Although this role feels obvious, it's taken on increased importance as more and more content is available for free online. These are the people who are willing to pay for what you create. When I spoke to Flourish, a grad student in fan culture at MIT, she pointed out that in her research these people "want to spend money because they genuinely want to support the writers and artists behind whatever they're a fan of." These are the people who made Radiohead’s pay-what-you-want sale of "In Rainbows" a success by paying $5, $10, $20 for something they could just as easily get for free (or even $80 for the deluxe package), because they wanted to show their support for the artists. So, for brands who aspire to cultivate a fan community, there's a big hurdle here to make the fans really feel like they're supporting the creators.
Fans as Conversation Agents This is often the role that people in the social media marketing industry focus on most. These are the people who attract the attention and interest of a mass audience through their passionate conversations and activities both online and off.
Fans as Keepers of the Canon This is a role that is getting a lot more attention now as a direct result of the internet. These are the people who meticulously catalog a detailed history of narrative worlds (usually fictional, but sometimes brand-related, too). Often, this collective intelligence becomes the primary steward of particular works. For instance, Alex McDowell, the production designer for the new Watchmen movie, said at the conference that they used fan-generated notes to cross-check the details of different scenes.
Fans as Co-Authors This is a role that many authors or brand managers are most afraid of, yet it's also the role that can be most rewarding. These are the people who are actively taking the original work and reinterpreting it into a new creation of their own. Fan-fiction as a written medium has been around for a while, but now new communications platforms are spawning new forms of fan-generated narrative entertainment. The recent Mad Men Twitter activity was a great example of how this role is evolving, as individual fans created a genuine extension of the official fiction that was portrayed in weekly TV episodes.
When I asked Bud Melman, the man in the mail room and the creator of We Are Sterling Cooper, the hub of the Man Men Twitter saga, for his thoughts, he added:
Fans that co-create are engaged with content on an incredibly deep level, so deep that it has bonded with their sense of self and personal creation. We're consuming more of your content than anyone else as well, we're downloading your wallpapers (and who does that anymore?), and we're reading your on-site blogs/forums (which aren't really blogs or forums). For AMC specifically, we make up a disproportionate amount of the visits on your site, we raise the average time on site, and we create more reasons for people to ever search for and land on your site.
(Bud Melman will be releasing a behind-the-scenes tell-all report about the entire Mad Men Twitter episode on Dec. 8th. Email bud.patrick.melman@gmail.com to get an advance copy before it's up on the web.)
Some brands, TV shows, and movies are embracing these changes, and doing well because of it. Others are still struggling.
I think that the most important thing, is to recognize this multi-faceted relationship between fans and the people who create the work that they're passionate about. It's easy to become myopic and focus too narrowly on only one or two of these roles. But, we do ourselves a disservice by not honoring all the diverse ways that fans are willing and able to participate with the things they love.
[Web communications platforms] don't get socially interesting until they get technologically boring.
This quote has been ringing in my head since I first heard it. Shirky uses this insight to underscore his assertion that email is actually the most powerful online social tool we've got right now. Its relative significance, compared to newer tools like Facebook or Twitter, is derived from the fact that email use is now familiar and common enough to be taken for granted. Shirky references the recent presidential election as an example of email's power to influence and persuade, as messages were furiously forwarded from friend to friend and family member to family member either to support or to argue against emerging narratives about the candidates, their personal histories, and their policies.
The more I've thought about Shirky's assertion, the more I've begun to recognize other evidence of a renewed appreciation for email as a publishing platform and communications tool.
In September, actress Gwyneth Paltrow announced Goop, the latest extension of her emerging celebrity as lifestyle brand (a la Tyra Banks, Christy Turlington, and Oprah). Goop is a weekly email newsletter written by Gwyneth herself (there's an image of her autograph at the bottom, so it must be her writing, right?); its subjects include fashion, fitness, culture, food, and travel ... basically, things that are important to the people who care about what's important to Gwyneth.
While everyone's writing about how the economic downturn means the end of ad-supported blogs, the email business seems to be going strong. When I spoke to Ben Lerer, founder of the awesome Thrillist, he said that they "have seen explosive growth like never before" in the past few months.
What does email offer that other newer tools don't?
To the reader, an email feels like a one-to-one communication, whether it's actually one-to-one, one-to-few, or even one-to-many. This key difference in the audience's experience of email cultivates a sense of intimacy between author and reader, and helps to strengthen the author's reputation in the eyes of the reader.
Both Facebook and Twitter are primarily broadcast communication tools; even though they include one-to-one capabilities with direct messaging, the main forms of messaging are automatically sent from the author to everyone who follows them. This undermines any feeling that the reader might have that the message was carefully composed for them.
Ben Lerer pointed out that email offers much needed curation of content. Not everyone has time to go out and read 1,000 different cool blogs every day to dig up one or two gems. At a time when we have more incoming streams of information than ever before, people appreciate being served on a silver platter, and someone who's willing to risk their reputation to tell you that what they're sharing with you is worth your time.
Also, there's a huge difference in the quality of attention. When users check in on Facebook they are confronted by a torrent of activity from their friends. It is assumed that you'll miss some things, because there are simply too many discrete messages to keep track of. So, the reader learns to filter on the fly and tune out certain messages. Twitter users have a similar experience. A Twitter power-user who follows many people and is online most of the day has to learn to ignore certain people. And the novice Twitter users don't check in that regularly, and therefore miss messages simply because they weren't listening at the right time.
When a reader comes across a blog, even if they're a loyal reader, they're reading in the outdoors; it's the difference between seeing stick on a trail in the woods and seeing the same stick mounted on a white wall in an art gallery. "There's also something to be said for the quality of an audience that's opted in," said Lerer, rather than coming across your content as you hop from one link to another.
Email offers an amount of devoted attention unmatched by any other emerging online communications tool. As a result, email messages are afforded the luxury of being substantive in their content (generally the more meaningful, relevant, and useful the content is, the more successful the newsletter).
And this difference makes email a uniquely powerful tool in the influence arsenal. When I think about the three variables that contribute to influence, popularity, reputation, and the ability to inspire action, email offers a unique way to cultivate relationships and inspire action. It makes sense that people like Jason Calacanis or Gwyneth Paltrow would turn to email, because they already had huge popularity. What they needed was a format that makes their readers feel special; compared to blogs and the broadcast platforms that Facebook and Twitter have become, email actually feels very intimate. Even if there are tens of thousands of other subscribers on the list, when they read that email they feel like it's a direct message from the sender, and in effect it is.
Ultimately, it comes down to the loyalty and respect that you can earn among your audience. Successful communications are about cultivating a reputation for always delivering valuable information to your audience, and translating that attention into action. Right now, email still seems like the best opportunity to do that.
1. Decide how much money you want to get paid. - It doesn't matter why, just make sure it's a really really really big number (if your client doesn't look like you just slapped them in the face when you tell them your price, then you're probably not asking for enough).
2. Tell the client that the entire internet is going to go down if they don't agree to your fee. - This step is key, because the client needs to feel like they could never even begin to understand what you're going to do or why you need to do it.
3. Get paid. (This is the real genius of Paulson's method.) Make sure that the client gives you your money up front. This will give you the flexibility to do what you want without worrying about whether or not the client will be happy.
4. Do what you wanna do... or don't. Now that you've cashed your big fat check, you can pretty much just tinker around and try out different things that may or may not work, and then just vaguely explain it to the client later.
Hmmm...wait a second. This doesn't sound too far off from how a lot of digital agencies already operate.
Soulja Boy, known for his YouTube hit “Crank Dat” is launching a Make Soulja Boy Go Platinum In A Week Project. This is like if I wrote a BuzzFeed trend called the “Get Peggy One Million Hits in One Week” Project.
We are all Millenials, the presentation sets out to illuminate some of the changes that has taken place during the last eight years. Stating that changes in nine “ideas” during the last years has had such an impact on us that we are all a part of the digital evolution.
I love the beautiful videos people are making with their digital SLR cameras. This is a great stop-motion video of one guy's visit to London.
Let’s be blunt. Almost every assumption about America that was taken as a given by our political culture on Tuesday morning was proved wrong by Tuesday night.
Next Friday Nov. 21st and Saturday Nov. 22nd the Convergence Culture Consortium will host the third annual Futures of Entertainment Conference. This incredible conference, inspired by and lead by Henry Jenkins, author of Convergence Culture, brings together some of the most brilliant minds in new media, from academia, the marketing industry, and the entertainment industry. Over the course of 2 information-packed days, attendees are treated to long thoughtful panel discussions on topics like finding value in new entertainment, making the audience matter, comic books, and transmedia extensions. The part I'm most looking forward to is a one-on-one conversation between Henry Jenkins and Yochai Benkler, author of The Wealth of Networks.
You can register for either one or two days. I went last year, and it was the best conference I've been to all year. I highly recommend it.
The era of the million dollar flashturbation micro-site is finally dead. We thought we had killed it with Web 2.0. We thought we had killed it with AJAX and Ruby on Rails. We thought we had killed it with Facebook and Youtube. But, now we have the foundering economy to thank for finally putting the nail in the coffin. In 2009 brands won't be able to justify the shocking price tags for sites that do more for the trophy shelf of the creative agency than they do for a brand's bottom line. 2009 promises to be a challenging year for brands and creative digital agencies alike, as budgets are slashed and belts are tightened. But, these financial constraints create an opportunity. 2009 isn't the year to do less work, or to do the same work for less money. 2009 is the year to do more work than ever, but at lower cost (and risk) than ever before.
2009 is the year to create micro-experiences instead of micro-sites.
A ceramics professor comes in on the first day of class and divides the students into two sections. He tells one half of the class that their final grade will be based exclusively on the volume of their production; the more they make, the better their grade. The professor tells the other half of the class that they will be graded more traditionally, based solely on the quality of their best piece. At the end of the semester, the professor discovered that the students who were focused on making as many pots as possible also ended up creating the best pots, much better than the pots made by the students who spent all semester trying to create that one perfect pot.
In the past few years we've seen thousands of successful little projects spring up like weeds across the web. Web development is incredbibly accessible and collaborative now. And the cost of executing small ideas is practically nil. Noah Brier has been a big proponent of this kind of iterative experimentation, and has built a number of sites on his own: Holy Crap Facts - a catalog of surprising facts, How Much Does it Buy? - a translator for dollars into familiar goods and services, My First Tweet - a public database of people's first messages on Twitter, and Brand Tags - a place to aggregate the collective perceptions of familiar brands. These sites cost Noah time and effort, but compared to your average branded microsite, these sites cost nothing. Released in May of this year, Brand Tags now has over 1.2 million tags.
And Noah's not the only one out there who's doing this kind of work. Look at Twistori, Umbrella Today, and Obama is Your New Bicycle. Look at the flood of iPhone apps. These are compelling experiences that are worth talking about, yet none of them were built by a multi-million dollar corporate agency. If you've got a good idea, build it quickly and cheaply. If it catches on: great. If it doesn't catch on: build something else quickly and cheaply. Rinse and repeat.
And if the multi-million dollar corporate agencies want a piece of the action in 2009, they're going to have to learn how to make a lot of pots.
Influence is always a hot topic. Everyone wants to know who has it or how to get it. So, it's nice to be reminded of what it means and how to recognize it. I agree with Gavin's break down here. And I like how it reveals less discussed, but still important, territories of influence like Niche (little reach, much respect) and Hype (much reach, little respect).
I want to add to Gavin's map a measurement of the action that the individual (or brand) can inspire among their followers. Ultimately, being well known and well respected only gets you so far. The final test of your influence comes when you actually make a recommendation or ask your readers to do something. Do they take action? Here's the new 3D map, with three axis: Popularity, Reputation, and Action.
Update: I've altered the labels on this diagram slightly, to try to address some of the confusion in the comments. Also, it's important to note that each of these variables, popularity, reputation, and action exist independently from each other. It is possible to be strong in any one of these aspects, and yet be weak in any of the others. Most importantly, it is possible to achieve both popularity and even a strong reputation, yet still not be able to instigate action among your followers. How to achieve each of these goals is a whole other conversation, one that is already well under way, and one that I'm sure I'll pick up in the near future.
Now we have a new quadrant reserved for the most successful influencers who have found a way to channel their popularity and reputation into collective action. Perhaps they have a tribe of readers who buys every one of their books when they come out, like Seth Godin. Maybe they've used Twitter to inspire evangelists and get loyal customers, like @zappos. Or maybe they've channeled a nation-wide movement into a successful campaign for President, like Barack Obama (I promise that I'll try not to use Obama as an example in every one of my posts about the social web for the rest of the year, but it won't be easy).
Ultimately, it requires all of these aspects to become a phenomenon in your market (context is always key). But, even if your popularity is relatively weak, you can still achieve success by instigating action.
If you have any examples of influencers who fit into these various quadrants, please leave them in the comments.
Much has been discussed about how Obama harnessed the social power of the internet to help him achieve victory in the Presidential campaign. Now, he's in the fortunate position of having earned arguably the largest, most engaged, and most powerful social network of any person or brand in history.
2,765,814Facebook Fans, and hundreds of other niche pages and groups
These numbers add up to millions of individuals who care about what Obama does, and have already taken deliberate action to help him accomplish his goals. They have chosen to listen to what he has to say, and more importantly they have told him through comments, message board posts, group emails, photos, and response videos, what matters to them.
Now Obama is faced with a similar challenge and opportunity as many brands and corporations who have recently made successful forays into the social web. Now that my campaign is over, and we built this network of fans, what do we do next?
Stay active, stay engaged, and stay human All of these connections you have made are with real people. You have built up a community of trust and reciprocal relationships. These individuals are still visiting Youtube and Facebook everyday. They're still Twittering every day. They're still interested in what you have to say. Be clear with them about what comes next. Tell them about your next goals, and invite them to help you create them.
Listen, listen, listen The best thing that the social web has to offer is the opportunity to listen to the people who share your interests. Obama and the brands who are in similar positions should be actively listening to their fans to stay in touch on an hourly basis with the things that are important to them. Use search tools to monitor buzz and identify emerging issues.
Give them something to do Social networks work best when the members feel like they have something to do. When your big campaign is finished, give your fans something smaller to work towards, or a smaller experience to participate in until your next big thing comes along. These smaller goals don't have to be outward facing (in fact sometimes it's better if they're not). Inspire conversation among the community. Ask them to talk about what they think you should do next. Ask them to introduce each other to compelling content and experiences outside your network. Ask them to give you advice about how to be a more effective community leader.
Update: Obama has already started to indicate how he plans to continue this movement online. On Thursday, his transition team launched the beautifully designed change.gov. On this official site, visitors are invited to share their stories about the campaign, their hopes for this incoming administration, and to apply for jobs. Also, Chris Hughes, the young creator of Obama's social network my.barackobama.com, encouraged members to stay tuned for the next chapter: "The site isn't going anywhere. The online tools in My.BarackObama will live on. Barack Obama supporters will continue to use the tools to collaborate and interact."
In the moments following the announcements by major news networks that Barack Obama had been elected the next President of the United States millions of people turned to their digital cameras and mobile phones to document the moment and then to the social web to share their experience with their online friends.
12 Seconds turned out to be a perfect format for capturing such a fleeting experience. Julia Roy was with me and the Undercurrent crew at the CNN Grill and captured the reaction of the room.
This Youtube user recorded his neighbors in the East Village in NYC flooding into the streets and dancing on top of a bus.
And of course Facebook activity has been completely overrun with documenting and reacting to Obama's big night. Check out a search for recent mobile uploads. How many election night photos do you see? Here's a great shot of people celebrating in the streets of Seattle by my friend Steve.
For my part, I streamed a live video from my Blackberry to Qik (and announced the broadcast to my followers on Twitter). The video quality is obviously poor, but what's important is that I was able to share my experience in real time with a global network of online friends. (Look for the brief cameos by Eddie Izzard and Julia Allison at the 1:30 mark).
So, when we talk about being being born digital, or what it means to be a digital native, this is the kind of always-on connectivity we're talking about.
Sometimes it felt like this day would never come. And now that it's here, it's almost too much to take. Here are a few websites and blog posts to help you make it through the day.
Watch the DailyKos' Election Scoreboard as results start coming in tonight. They'll be receiving the exact same results that every major news organization gets as they're reported by the states.
Over 120 million votes were cast in the 2004 election. This year people are predicting that we could see as many as 135 or even 140 million votes, and the highest percentage turnout since 1960. Certainly George W. Bush and his miserable administration is to thank for that. I can't help think, however, that the internet and the ways it's enabled people to become more involved in the process, and has helped to organize our effort has played a role. I was talking to Bud Caddell yesterday, and he raised an interesting question, are young people who have grown up on the social web going to feel differently about the value of participating in our democracy? I think that they will; I think that people who have grown up on Digg, Wikipedia, Youtube, have a fundamentally different appreciation for group participation and collective action and how small contributions by many people can add up to something pretty awesome.
And in case you still need motivation to get out and vote, remember New Hampshire back in January:
I spent the weekend designing and coding a thorough overhaul of my website, mikearauz.com. I've been plotting this redesign for a while, and I'm very happy with the way it turned out.
Websites are most valuable for the introductions they make, and the relationships they foster. While I definitely want people to read what I write, it's more important to me that we establish some kind of ongoing connection. This is why the "main navigation" on the page actually takes you away from mikearauz.com to my profiles across the social web: Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr, Delicious, Flickr, and LinkedIn.
Also, the pictures, videos, and links that are pulled in from my Tumblr blog and posted in the right-hand column don't offer permalinks. I think this is appropriate, because they are all links to someone else's content, and someone else's permalink. The intention is to make introductions between my readers and the content creators at the other end of those links. I benefit more from having made the introduction than I would from trying to take the traffic.
This is an approach that more brands should be taking with their websites. The objectives for a branded microsite should not be visits and length of stay, but rather the number of ongoing relationships it inspired. How many fans did the site lead to on existing social networks like Facebook and MySpace? How did the brand enhance its reputation by introducing its visitors to other fans, to compelling content elsewhere on the web, and to other fans who were creating that content?
Let me know what you think of the new design in the comments. Thanks.