Mike Arauz's Blog – The Archives

Be sure to watch it all the way to the end.

When I watched the debate last night, I thought it ended in a draw. This is much better news for Obama than it is for McCain, though, because Obama is leading right now. If the race doesn't change, Obama's gonna win.

Both candidates had a substantive grasp of the issues raised, and neither one really forced the other to do anything they might regret.

However, when I read Mark Halperin's report card this morning, it made me see the result in a slightly larger context. I think in the long run (over the next 4 weeks) this debate will help Obama a lot more than it helps McCain because Obama was able to reinforce his overarching narrative of "Obama=change and McCain=more of the same". Over and over Obama was able to say how McCain was tied to the failed conservative policies of the past several decades. McCain, however, was unable to make his case that "McCain=country first and Obama=Obama first". And McCain has no one but himself to blame. When you choose to hang your hat on a superficial personal attack, it makes it pretty hard to argue your point when you're actually face to face with your opponent.

This was Obama's best moment:

This is so painful, I almost feel sorry for her.

"The Bubblegum Sequencer is a physical step sequencer that lets you create drumloops by arranging colored balls on a tangible surface. It generates MIDI events and can be used as an input device to control audio hardware and software. Finally, people can't claim anymore that electronic music isn't handmade."

via Bud Caddell

The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.

I'm still keeping my Tumblr blog separate from this one, because I don't want to overwhelm you with too many pretty pictures. But, if you haven't visited mikearauz.tumblr.com lately, here's a taste of what you've been missing:

a little sculpture...


via Fubiz

a little street art...


via JR on Flickr

and a little fashion...


via Garance Doré (via Maquette)

via Fubiz


Light-Paint Piano Player from Ryan Cashman on Vimeo.

If you're half as interested in this presidential election as I am, then you can sympathize with the feeling of sudden panic that pulses through your body every time you read about some new poll that shows Obama down by 2,3,4, 5! points in some state you thought was a lock. So here's some very healthy advice to help you keep your sanity over the next 7 weeks.

First of all, remember that this election will be decided by the Electoral College. This means, as we learned in 2000, that no matter who wins the most votes nation-wide, it is the candidate who wins the most Electoral College Votes based on the states he's won that will become our next President. Therefore, as often as we hear about national poll results - dozens per week - they're only useful as a general indication of which candidate has the momentum.

Secondly, no poll is perfect...ever. The reality of public opinion is always going to be found somewhere between the polling extremes. So, both in national polling, and in state by state polling, always look to the averages of recent polls for the most accurate indication of who's ahead in this race. Here are some excellent sources for those kind of balanced and measured predictions.

For national polling, follow the daily updates on MyDD. Every afternoon they look at the most recent results from 4 independent tracking polls. Each of these polls gets results every day, and their numbers reflect the average of the previous three days of polling. MyDD then takes the averages of those 4 averaged polls. This final average is a reliable indication of the general state of the race nation-wide.

For state by state polling - and remember, this is what really counts - there are three valuable sources. Each one has their own unique methodology for averaging all available recent polls for each state, and offers a prediction of which candidate would most likely win the most Electoral College Votes if the election were held today.

Pollster.com - their estimate is based on the endpoint of a current trend line drawn by the post recent polls.

FiveThirtyEight.com - this site is run by a statistics analyst named Nate Silver. His methodology is probably the most complex, taking into account not only all available recent polls, but tweaking and handicapping the odds based on a slew of other variables.

OpenLeft Presidential Forecast - this is the most straight forward of the bunch, simply averaging the most recent polls for each state and predicting which candidate will win that state based on who's up.

What I've learned over the past few months, is that Obama is doing better than Kerry was in 2004. He's pretty much locked down all of the states that Kerry won, and added Iowa and New Mexico. Obama's best chances at reaching the magic number of 273, are in Colorado, Ohio, or Virginia (in that order).

So keep doing what you can. Donate to Obama. And don't panic.

The new Charlie Kaufman film. Yay! (via Kottke)

Originally uploaded by *Hiro

The Collider is ALIVE!!! ALIIIIIVE!!

Brilliant use of User Generated Content.

[A 24 Hour Trip to New York] from M. Ward on Vimeo.